Market Watch

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Market Making since 1793

Numismatic collecting market analysis shows that it will grow with a CAGR of 10.2% over the forecast period of 2021 to 2027. Coin collecting is considered a good investing option by consumers as It is a key factor driving the market growth. Perhaps more noteworthy, the numismatic index has increased by 6,315% since its inception in 1970.

1933 Double eagle sale at $18.9mn

By many accounts, the numismatic market has seen tremendous growth since the start of the pandemic, both in terms of the number of sales and in the prices for sought-after items. We have noticed a healthy amount of cryptocurrency investors divesting their assets to purchase numismatic assets, especially with prices for some rarities in the millions of pounds, collectable coins have become a hot item. In 2021, a highly sought-after 1933 Double Eagle gold U.S. coin sold for $18.9 million at Sotheby’s, with the auction house stating the price nearly doubled the world-record mark for a coin. Overall, prices of key rare coins, as tracked by a popular industry index created by Coin Grading Services (PCGS), have risen 16% since 2021.

50% Gains y-0n-y

Bar and coin investment accelerated sharply in the first half of 2021, gaining almost 50% year on year (y-o-y) by the end of Q2. Coin purchases saw a y-o-y growth rate of 18% for the last two consecutive quarters. This was largely due to the comparison with a weak first half of 2020 when markets were in lockdown, and distress selling was seen in some markets in response to the pandemic. In the second half of 2021, this element of demand maintained good momentum, as high inflation readings across the globe kept retail investors focused on gold’s role as an inflation hedge and wealth protection asset. In 2022 China saw the Lunar New Year holiday, which helped boost demand before year-end. There is a general expectation that gold bar and coin demand will benefit from continued promotional efforts by the precious metals departments of commercial banks.

69% Growth Q2 2022

Our expectation is that Indian investment demand to remain healthy throughout 2022. It may receive support from higher inflation expectations and possible weakness in the rupee due to the widening trade deficit.

United States bar and coin demand grew 69%, with Q2 2022 seeing the eighth consecutive quarter of y-o-y growth – at rates of at least double-digits. The American Mint reported its strongest year bullion coin sales since 2009: it sold a combined total of 1,252,000 ounces of gold in 2021 in Eagle and Buffalo coins. Interest in gold bars and coins was reportedly almost entirely one-way, with selling back activity very limited.

Global Outlook

A second consecutive record year of bar and coin demand in Germany helped lift annual European investment by 6%. While the initial COVID-induced buying reaction cooled down during the year, macroeconomic uncertainties kept interest in bullion high. Among these, surging inflationary pressure and negative interest rates in both real and nominal terms have continued to drive gold investment.

Annual bar and coin demand in Vietnam saw a slight increase supported by new digital avenues for purchasing gold products that came to market in 2021. Annual retail demand in Singapore increased by 15% y-o-y to the final quarter. Bar and coin investment in Malaysia increased by 28% y-o-y in Q4 2021. South Korea finished the year with an increase on 2020 as Q4 saw demand pick up by 3% y-o-y as the third consecutive quarter of growth in bar and coin demand.

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